Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to be a key driver of optimism in the stock markets, especially looking ahead to 2026. However, as the growth cycle progresses and investor expectations rise, a specific concern emerges among investment banks and managers: the potential impact of IPOs from large AI companies that remain private, particularly if they debut with valuations that are difficult to justify from a fundamental perspective. Bankinter warns in its outlook report for the first quarter of 2026 that the market could face significant imbalances, partly due to the arrival of high and unsustainable valuations of AI companies on the stock exchange. While the entity dismisses a widespread bubble, it anticipates episodes of volatility that will require caution and temperance from investors. The concern focuses on private firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, whose valuations have skyrocketed driven by investor enthusiasm, despite their profits remaining limited due to the high cost of developing their models. The risk, according to Bankinter, is that an IPO with excessive expectations could lead to sharp corrections affecting the entire tech sector. British strategist Neil Wilson also warns of a possible "explosion of IPOs in 2026," noting that the high valuations of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic could indicate a bubble or, alternatively, reflect investors' insatiable appetite for AI in an early investment cycle. Wilson highlights that many of these companies will enter the market with prices based on private funding rounds that assume very aggressive future growth. Marcos Sánchez Cid, manager at Ursus Capital, agrees with this analysis and emphasizes that OpenAI and Anthropic have received massive investments from giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, or Nvidia, which act as investors, suppliers, and customers. This circular structure could amplify risk: if these companies debut on the stock market with demanding multiples and fail to meet profit expectations—still limited due to high capital costs—they could suffer significant declines that would impact their main shareholders. Additionally, any weakness in one link of this chain could affect the entire ecosystem. Among the IPOs to watch in 2026, Wilson mentions SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is preparing for an IPO that could be among the largest in history, potentially raising $30 billion and achieving a valuation of up to $1.5 trillion. The growth of Starlink and the record number of commercial launches position SpaceX as a strategic bet in the space economy, although regulatory and governance risks persist. OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, may explore its stock market debut by the end of 2026, with valuations being discussed in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Its revenues have grown exponentially, reaching an annualized rate of $20 billion, with plans to triple its data center capacity. However, high cash consumption and competition with Google, Anthropic, and Meta are key factors to watch. Anthropic, responsible for the Claude models, is also preparing for a possible IPO in 2026, with speculation about a valuation exceeding $200 billion. Its ability to set prices in the enterprise market, regulatory oversight, and concentration of cloud partnerships will be determining aspects. In summary, the AI market faces a decisive year, where investor euphoria must be balanced with caution in light of demanding valuations and systemic risks. (Source: bolsamania.com)