Sebastian Mallaby, AI expert, predicts the end of ChatGPT in 18 months.
    Inteligencia Artificial (IA)

    Sebastian Mallaby, AI expert, predicts the end of ChatGPT in 18 months.

    Paloma Firgaira
    2026-01-16
    5 min read
    Sebastian Mallaby, a recognized financial analyst and artificial intelligence specialist, has warned about the delicate economic situation of OpenAI, suggesting that the company could face financial collapse in the short term. His assessment, published in The New York Times and reported by elconfidencial.com, highlights the pressure from the high operational costs of the company responsible for ChatGPT, in a context of fierce competition for leadership in generative AI. Mallaby, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, points out that the main challenge is not technological but financial. According to his analysis, the artificial intelligence sector is going through a phase of high expectations, but revenues are growing at a much slower pace, jeopardizing the sustainability of independent companies like OpenAI. Since the emergence of ChatGPT, AI capabilities have advanced significantly, enabling everything from the creation of complex texts to solving logical problems. However, this progress requires costly infrastructure: data centers, advanced chips, and considerable energy consumption, which constantly increases operational expenses. Unlike giants like Google, Meta, or Microsoft, which can finance these developments through their solid core businesses, OpenAI relies almost exclusively on external investments to sustain its growth. This dependence makes it particularly vulnerable in an environment where users show little willingness to pay for AI services, and the abundance of free alternatives complicates the profitability of subscription or advertising-based models. Mallaby warns that if the situation does not change, OpenAI could exhaust its resources within 18 months, facing the possibility of bankruptcy. This forecast is based on the high capital consumption and investment commitments necessary to expand its technological infrastructure. Should this scenario materialize, the expert considers it likely that OpenAI would end up being acquired by a large corporation with greater financial muscle, such as Microsoft (which already owns 27% of the company) or Amazon. Mallaby clarifies that this would not mean the failure of artificial intelligence, but rather the end of a phase marked by intense investment and high expectations in the sector.
    Paloma Firgaira

    Paloma Firgaira

    CEO

    Con más de 20 años de experiencia, Paloma es una ejecutiva flexible y ágil que sobresale implementando estrategias adaptadas a cada situación. Su MBA en Administración de Empresas y experiencia como Experta en IA y Automatización fortalecen su liderazgo y pensamiento estratégico. Su eficiencia en la planificación de tareas y rápida adaptación al cambio contribuyen positivamente a su trabajo. Con sólidas habilidades de liderazgo e interpersonales, tiene un historial comprobado en gestión financiera, planificación estratégica y desarrollo de equipos.