The Stock Market Paradox in AI: Investors Bet on Losers While Big Tech Faces Pressure
    Inteligencia Artificial (IA)

    The Stock Market Paradox in AI: Investors Bet on Losers While Big Tech Faces Pressure

    Paloma Firgaira
    2026-02-17
    5 min read
    Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming stock markets, especially in the United States, where the focus has shifted from seeking winners to penalizing those who appear to be lagging in the tech race. This change coincides with a correction in major tech companies, driven by doubts about the actual profitability of their substantial investments in AI. Over the past two years, AI has been the engine of the markets, but it now also generates tensions and volatility. Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global head of research at Barclays, points out that the narrative about the future of AI is key to the global economy. Strong capital spending by tech companies has boosted investment and consumption in the U.S., although the rest of the economy shows signs of weakness. According to Rajadhyaksha, the economic fate of the United States and the world depends on how the story of AI evolves. The market is questioning whether massive investments in AI will be profitable and whether automation will lead to layoffs and structural changes in numerous sectors. Scott Chronert, chief equity strategist at Citi, warns that the fear is that the productivity generated by AI could be counterproductive for the global economy, and that the current narrative is marked by some short-term exaggeration. Technological innovations, such as Claude Cowork and Opus 4.6 from Anthropic, have influenced recent stock corrections. Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, advancements and their repercussions in the markets have been rapid. Chronert highlights that AI disruption is questioning valuation multiples in many sectors, leading investors to focus on specific risks. Anthropic has developed models capable of performing specialized tasks, such as programming, spreadsheet management, or drafting legal documents, which previously required qualified personnel. This poses a threat to both workers and traditional business models. For example, the Nifty IT index of Indian tech firms has fallen by 15% since February, and companies like Wolters Kluwer or Thomson Reuters have seen declines of up to 16%. The market is also observing the impact of AI complements and agents in specific applications. A notable case is the Asturian start-up Tuio, which has closed a deal with ChatGPT to offer home insurance quotes, leading to drops in the stock prices of insurers like AON and Mapfre. The overreaction extends to other sectors. Algorhythm Holdings, after announcing improvements to its AI platform for logistics, caused a 6.6% drop in the truck sector of the Russell 3000. Wealth management firms like St James’s Place or Quilter have also experienced declines, highlighting the importance of personal relationships in financial advising. In addition to AI disruption, there has been a correction in major tech companies since February. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle have lost nearly three trillion dollars in market capitalization, coinciding with earnings season and increased debt financing. Despite this, Barclays maintains an optimistic outlook for these companies heading into 2026. The S&P 500 has slight losses for the year, while the Russell 2000, focused on smaller companies, has risen more than 6%. According to Citi, the combination of bearish narratives, geopolitical tensions, and AI disruption keeps the S&P 500 in a flat trend, which will only change when investors regain a medium- to long-term perspective. The underlying debate is whether the enthusiasm for AI will end in a bubble. For now, major investment firms dismiss this possibility, although Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS, warns that when prices move based on emotions, the risk of a bubble is always present.
    Paloma Firgaira

    Paloma Firgaira

    CEO

    Con más de 20 años de experiencia, Paloma es una ejecutiva flexible y ágil que sobresale implementando estrategias adaptadas a cada situación. Su MBA en Administración de Empresas y experiencia como Experta en IA y Automatización fortalecen su liderazgo y pensamiento estratégico. Su eficiencia en la planificación de tareas y rápida adaptación al cambio contribuyen positivamente a su trabajo. Con sólidas habilidades de liderazgo e interpersonales, tiene un historial comprobado en gestión financiera, planificación estratégica y desarrollo de equipos.